Back to the Future

It’s that time of the year again when we look at where the industry is heading. Bill Schmalzer of Forecast International zeroes in on the gas turbine (GT) marketplace. He tells you the current size of the GT sector worldwide in terms of dollar value and unit sales, as well as how the different vendors fare in each category.And he lays it all out year by year for the coming decade.

His prognosis is that things will improve a little in terms of orders for a couple more years before leveling off or declining slightly. He’s not seeing a major spike in global sales orMWnor is he expecting any kind of serious collapse.

All told, over 12,000 GTs should be produced for power generation over the decade. As usual, GE remains the dollar value leader while Solar produces the most turbines. Bill also goes into the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) space which he thinks holds the biggest expansion prospects, potentially doubling within 10 years.

That story is followed by a broader analysis by Brock Ramey and Shane Mullins from Industrial Info Resources. They delve into how environmental regulations and low-cost natural gas are impacting the coal, gas, nuclear and renewable sectors.

Coal-fired generation, for example, is faced with a choice of retrofit, repower or retire in order to stay competitive and compliant. The report outlines where to expect closures and what retrofit projects are ongoing. Similarly, the analysts from IIR crunch the numbers for natural gas generation and the many flavors of renewable energy. They anticipate tough times for nuclear and most types of renewables, while gas will continue to flourish.

Another feature story looks at growing trends toward packaging andmodularization of turbines and compressors. More and more, turbomachinery is arriving on site preassembled.

For the oil & gas industry in particular, pre-packaging has led to the advent of huge modules such as complete LNGtrains or turbine and compressor systems tailored to life on a floating platform.

Speaking of LNG, we have an interesting article from Amin Almasi covering the design of future LNG plants. He wonders if frame gas turbines have any place within LNGmodules and if they should be replaced by aeroderivative driven or all-electric driven technology. Meanwhile, GE is moving forward on LMS100 installations as reported inside, particularly in California in response to a toughening environmental scene.

Enjoy reading the handbook, and then keep it handy throughout the year as your ready reference for product and service suppliers and any and all specs across the turbomachinery spectrum.