Alissa Espinoza

In this two-part episode of the TurboTime Podcast, Klaus Burn of Ebara Elliott Energy, and Rainer Kurz of RKSBenergy LLC, discuss compressor maps. The duo explains what compressor maps are, what they are useful for, how they fit into the process, and where head, flow, and efficiency islands fit in.

“In its most basic form, a compressor map is a graphical representation of how a centrifugal compressor behaves,” Brun said. “It's somewhat of an oversimplification because more factors play into it; but overall, it gives an accurate representation of what a compressor does within the system that it operates. A standard compressor map has an X and Y axis. The Y axis has something called head—isentropic or polytropic head. Sometimes you also see pressure ratio or a discharge pressure or a fixed section pressure. On the X axis is flow, and most of the time it’s volumetric flow. Sometimes you see mass flow, but that's not very common. Compressor maps also have a surge line on the left and on the right side of the map you have a choke or stonewall area. And finally, you have efficiency islands, and they correspond to the efficiency of the compressor. Not all compressor maps show them.”

Kurz further described efficiency islands: “Efficiency islands refer to the fact that these maps are three-dimensional, but we can only put them in two dimensions on paper. The three axes you want to display are head, flow, and efficiency. You use the efficiency lines in a very similar way to elevation lines. Also, the coordinates of the map that are directly affected by the compressor aerodynamics are head and flow. You can translate head into pressures or pressure ratios, and you can translate actual flow into mass flow, but ultimately what happens aerodynamically in the compressor is described by head and actual flow.”

Podcasts

The Myth Busters, Klaus Brun and Rainer Kurz, talk about compressor maps—what they are, how they are generated, and what they are useful for. 



TurboTime Podcast: Part I: Compressor Maps with the Myth Busters 

ASME’s 2024 Turbomachinery Technical Conference & Exposition in London, held June 24 – 28 at ExCeL London, welcomed more than 111 exhibiting companies from 22 countries, up from 89 exhibitors at the last Europe-based event in 2022. More than 2,500 attendees networked, attended technical presentations, and walked the exhibitor floor.

“ASME's Turbo Expo continues to attract leaders from industry, government agencies, and academia thanks to its strong reputation and program, which includes companies shaping the future of propulsion and power,” said ASME’s Executive Director and CEO Tom Costabile.

GAS TURBINES' INTEGRAL ROLE IN A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

Day two of Turbo Expo 2024 kicked off with the panel session, 

The Gas Turbine’s Role in the Decarbonized Power Generation Portfolio

. Executives, engineers, technical leaders, and managers from GE Vernova, Mitsubishi Power, Siemens Energy, and Solar Turbines discussed the challenges with production, transport, and storage of lower-carbon fuels; advancements to combustion systems; retrofits, and more.

Moderator Jeffrey Benoit, Vice President – Global Clean Energy Solutions, PSM – a Hanwha Company, broke out the “new” combustion systems into two sections:

newly manufactured gas turbines from OEMs

new technology retrofits for gas turbine fleets currently in operation

Peter Stuttaford, CEO of Thomassen Energy (TEM), a Hanwha Company, talked about the company’s FlameSheet combustion system retrofit that can be installed in most OEM’s gas turbines F-class and below. The platform offers fuel flexibility, operational range improvement, ultra-low NOx emissions, and entitlement lifecycle costs. In a gas turbine power plant—a GE Frame 7E in Daesan Korea—FlameSheet operated up to 60% hydrogen by volume.

The transport, production, and storage of lower-carbon fuels have historically presented many challenges. Robert Schrecengost—Division Director of H2 with Carbon Management at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Fossil Energy & Carbon Management—said overall advancement in terms of hydrogen production has been made with electrolyzers, “but storing and/or transportation to the site is a major investment that will be regionally focused,” he said. “Hydrogen hubs should start many of these in motion, but the Gulf region in the United States has the most hydrogen pipelines installed. Repurposing natural gas pipelines is being discussed in various locations but going to 100% hydrogen will still be a hurdle. A typical F-class gas turbine needs roughly 20K kg per hour of hydrogen. Pipelines or massive production and storage on-site will be necessary.”

Panelist Jason Jermark, VP of Global Service Operations at Siemens Energy, said: “Siemens Energy is actively addressing the challenge of ramping up production of alternative fuels and thus ensuring that sustainable hydrogen and its derivatives become available in relevant quantities and at competitive prices. In cooperation with various partners, we have launched projects to achieve this goal. In Chile, for example, Siemens Energy has teamed up with HIF Global, Porsche, and other companies to build ‘Haru Oni,’ an integrated and large-scale commercial plant to produce carbon-neutral fuels from wind power and water.”

However, according to Jermark, the foundation of the market ramp-up is based on the availability of electrolyzers to produce sustainable green hydrogen. “Air Liquide and Siemens Energy operate a multi-gigawatt electrolyzer production facility in Berlin that enables the supply of large-scale projects worldwide. One of the first projects supplied from the new production facility is a collaboration with Orsted to build one of Europe's largest commercial facilities, FlagshipOne, for carbon-neutral marine fuels in Sweden,” he said.

According to Carlos Koeneke, Technical Director at Mitsubishi Power Systems Americas, “the appetite” to produce, store, and co-fire low-carbon fuels is higher in regions of the world where fossil fuels are expensive. “In Asia, for example, most countries import LNG, which is not only more expensive than natural gas in terms of production, but shipping it usually involves long distances across oceans. These circumstances make hydrogen production economically reasonable in the affected countries.”

He said the long transport distances have created an additional incentive to use ammonia as a hydrogen carrier, as it does not require maintaining hydrogen at low temperatures.

“One new trend is co-firing ammonia directly instead of converting it back to hydrogen through the use of cracking,” Koeneke noted. “Several tests are currently being conducted to burn ammonia in conventional boilers and directly in gas turbines.”

Panelists and moderators at Turbo Expo - (left to right) Jeff Benoit (PSM), Bobby Noble (EPRI), Will York (GE Vernova), Robert Schrecengost (DOE), Jason Jermark (Siemens Energy), Carlos Koeneke (Mitsubishi Power), Daniel Reitz (Solar Turbines), and Peter Stuttaford (Thomassen Energy). Photo provided by Jeffrey Benoit

“All OEMs have decades of experience co-firing hydrogen with diffusion combustors,” Koeneke said. “The percentage of hydrogen has been high in cases of refinery by-product gases (in the order of 90% or higher). The current challenge is mainly related to the use of dry-low NOx combustors, where the risk of abnormal combustion, among others, associated with flashback requires testing and combustor modifications.”

Technological innovations are accommodating fuel flexibility. However, how these newer systems work with existing installations depends heavily on the specific gas turbine, according to Jermark, given the “wide range of over 20 different frames currently in operation, as well as the type of fuel being used—which includes options such as hydrogen co-firing, 100% hydrogen, (fully) cracked ammonia, direct ammonia combustion, methanol, HVO, and FAME,” he said. “Working in combination with various partners, we have recent examples of both pilot applications and scalable solutions. The goal for all new fuel-flexibility developments is to be retrofittable to ensure that they can be seamlessly integrated into the existing fleet with minimal modification.”

Panelist Daniel Reitz, Manager of Marketing and Product Strategy at Solar Turbines, said over the years, Solar Turbines has accumulated experience operating on a wide variety of fuels by adapting the combustion and auxiliary hardware—pumps, valves, etc.—to the fuel properties and is continuing to do that for low-carbon fuels.

“The low-carbon fuels such as renewable natural gas, bio-propane, biogas, biodiesel blends, renewable diesel, and hydrogen-natural gas blends have physical and chemical properties similar to the fuels we have experience operating our turbines on already,” Reitz said. “We characterize them as drop-in fuels, which means we have hardware available to burn these fuels. Regarding fuels with properties very different from drop-in fuels, hardware modifications or development is needed to support them.”

Gas turbines are said to become "fully decarbonized, dispatchable energy sources" that could support and balance intermittent power sources.

According to Reitz: “Gas turbines are inherently flexible and allow for easy adaptation to a wide variety of fuels with different characteristics. In addition to providing fuel flexibility, gas turbines provide high efficiency, low emissions, high availability, high reliability, and high-power density.”

With a larger integration of renewables, dispatchable gas turbines will become more necessary. “In future decarbonized energy systems where renewable energy sources play a significant role, there will be a growing need for dispatchable power to bridge longer periods of low renewable energy generation. While current battery technologies may face limitations in terms of storage capacity, gas turbine power plants offer the capability to quickly provide reliable power, as well as heat through combined heat-and-power generation, and deliver essential grid services,” Jermark said.

TURBOMACHINERY STRATEGIES FOR A CLEAN-ENERGY FUTURE

Flexibility and turbine advancements were the focal point of Wednesday’s panel session: 

Turbomachinery Solutions for Decentralized Energy Systems: Addressing Clean, Dispatchable, and Affordable Energy

. The panel—moderated by Giuseppe Tilocca, Scientific Officer, and Christer Björkqvist, Managing Director, at ETN Global—noted three major strategies addressing the challenges with current gas turbines and turbomachinery and a decrease in flexible capacity: fuel flexibility, digitalization, and efficiency improvements.

“Gas turbines and turbomachinery are evolving by pushing the boundaries of their inherent flexibility to provide mature and cost-effective solutions thereby ensuring a reliable and sustainable energy supply during the energy transition and beyond,” Tilocca said.

The flexibility requirements, as noted by organizations such as the Joint Research Center and the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, are expected to increase significantly; however, flexible capacity is decreasing. Effectively, Europe is projected to lose 107 GW of flexible capacity by 2030. This decline is driven largely by economic decommissioning.

Tilocca expanded on the strategies addressing these challenges:

 Gas turbines are being designed to operate on a variety of fuels, including hydrogen and biofuels, to ensure they can adapt to different energy sources.

 Advanced digital tools and analytics are being used to optimize operations and maintenance, allowing turbines to perform efficiently under varying conditions.

 Continuous advancements in turbine technology are improving the overall efficiency of these systems, reducing emissions, and lowering operating costs.

These measures are critical for ensuring that gas turbines remain a viable and sustainable option in a cleaner energy future. Moreover, Sean Fitzpatrick, CEO at Pure World Energy and operator of several microgrids, stressed the need to foster education and communication regarding the positive role of turbomachinery in the net-zero transition.

“Turbomachines are flexible solutions that by smart integration with renewables and storage systems will provide flexibility to decentralized systems and reduce the demand on national grids,” he said.

New combustion systems that enhance fuel flexibility are already available and being integrated into existing infrastructure. For example, Tilocca noted that the German Aerospace Center (DLR) has developed a retrofit system for a 100 kWe turbine adapted to run entirely on hydrogen, based on technology from Ansaldo Green Tech. This turbine is ready for commercial deployment in Germany, indicating that the technology is already available.

The main gaps these technologies address include:

By filling these gaps, new combustion technologies help reduce reliance on fossil fuels, decrease emissions, and support the transition to a sustainable energy ecosystem.

How Gas Turbines Support Decentralized Power Generation

Clean and dispatchable technologies are the future, and gas turbines are an essential component for decentralized power generation. Tilocca said that decentralized generation involves producing electricity closer to where it is used, reducing transmission losses, and enhancing grid resilience.

The key roles of gas turbines in decentralized power generation include:

Gas turbines can quickly ramp-up production to meet demand during peak periods or when fluctuating renewable sources are insufficient

 Prof. David Sanchez from the Universidad de Sevilla said gas turbines help maintain grid balance and quality.

 By complementing intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar, gas turbines help ensure a stable and reliable power supply.

Several market dynamics and operating conditions must be considered to transform current energy practices and support a cleaner energy future.

To navigate these challenges, it is essential to develop cost-effective, adaptable solutions that can meet evolving market demands while supporting the transition to a sustainable and clean-energy future.

Articles

The theme of this year’s show was achievements and needs to unlock a net-zero future in propulsion and power.

Turbo Expo Showcases Gas Turbines as Part of Decarbonized Future

 spoke with Dag Calafell, the Advisory Committee Chair of Turbomachinery & Pump Symposia (TPS) and Asia TPS, about the new research consortium and laboratory at Texas A&M. He also talked about the differences between TPS and Asia TPS.

TURBO: Are you excited about any upcoming or underway projects at the Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station?

You may have heard from Dr. Eric Peterson, the Director of the Turbomachinery Laboratory at Texas A&M, that a whole new laboratory space is being created that will deal more with systems instead of traditional machinery components. The turbomachinery laboratory research has been traditionally on component work, but now we will be looking at systems overall. That facility is scheduled to open at the end of this year. There will be a new research consortium with topics such as carbon capture and greenhouse gas emissions.

TURBO: Do you have plans for the next Asia Turbomachinery & Pump Symposia?

The Asia event is every two years, and we have found there is a difference in focus between TPS and Asia TPS. TPS is a little more practical, more 

—what do we have, what do we do with it, and how do we optimize our facilities? Whereas Asia TPS a broader event where we talk about research, upcoming products, product development, etc. We are seeing Asia TPS develop in that direction, going from case studies on optimizing machinery to what solutions should we be developing for the future and for some of the problems that we have today.

Dag Calafell of TPS talks about the new wing of the Turbomachinery Lab at Texas A&M and its shift in focus to systems versus components and plans for Asia TPS. 

Research Consortium at Texas A&M, Asia TPS

Videos

Dag Calafell of TPS talks plans for Asia TPS and the new wing of the Turbomachinery Lab at Texas A&M and its shift in focus from components to systems.

Research Consortium at Texas A&M, Updates on Asia TPS

At Turbomachinery & Pump Symposia 2024, Dr. Eric Petersen, Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Director of the Turbomachinery Laboratory at Texas A&M, shared what he’s most excited about regarding gas turbine combustion advancements.

Dr. Petersen explained: “In particular to advancements related to what we're doing at Texas A&M University’s Turbomachinery Laboratory is propulsion and combustion—these are two areas of major research that we've been involved with for several years. The Turbomachinery Laboratory is building a new facility on campus called 

The Propulsion and Energetics Research Laboratory

. It will allow us to expand and perform experiments at much higher pressures, much higher flow rates—the kinds of experiments you see for combustion for gas turbines and all types of propulsion systems. We will be able to conduct chemically reacting, high-pressure, high-temperature flow experiments safely in this new building.”

At TPS 2024, Dr. Eric Petersen of Texas A&M, shared what he’s most excited about regarding gas turbine combustion advancements.

Propulsion, Combustion at Texas A&M Turbo Lab

At TPS 2024, Dr. Eric Petersen shared what's new at the Turbomachinery Laboratory at Texas A&M, including combustion and propulsion. 

Propulsion, Combustion Advancements at Texas A&M Turbo Lab

spoke with Dag Calafell, Advisory Committee Chair of Turbomachinery & Pump Symposia (TPS) and Asia TPS, about the latest trends in turbomachinery and efforts that he sees across the industry to decarbonize.

TURBO: What trends you’re seeing in turbomachinery?

What we're seeing now is that the traditional turbomachinery topics are still important, but we're looking more at how to integrate the turbomachinery optimization/reliability topics using AI, using machine learning, and how can we be part of a larger system where we're optimizing revenues, profitability, and supply chain logistics.

TURBO: What efforts are you seeing for decarbonization?

 A couple of presentations earlier today addressed decarbonization. One was on integrating gas turbines into bottoming cycles, and another one was a tutorial on using all the various technologies for carbon capture. It talked about how today we're using amines but what are we going to be doing in the future, such as exhaust gas recirculation? So, a lot of our program is indeed how do we minimize our emissions. One of our end users is working on using AI and machine learning algorithms to optimize their turbomachinery trains to run them at peak efficiency and therefore reduce emissions across the entire company.

At TPS 2024, Dag Calafell of TPS, shared turbomachinery trends and industry efforts toward decarbonization. 

Turbo, Decarbonization Trends at TPS 

Turbomachinery, Decarbonization Trends from TPS Chairman

Dr. Eric Petersen, Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Turbomachinery Laboratory Director at Texas A&M, talks about the hottest sessions and topics at the 2024 Turbomachinery & Pump Symposia.

“The hottest technical sessions are the ones that have to do with emerging technologies, for example, those related to supercritical CO

 in terms of sequestration—basically preventing CO

 from going into the atmosphere," Dr. Petersen said. "That’s a big national and international concern, so a lot of engineering companies are working toward compressing, transporting, and handling large quantities of CO

“Other hot topics are our more classic topics. There's a new generation of engineers that want to get up to speed as quickly as possible on the basics of turbomachinery. We do this through our tutorials, short courses, and discussion groups, so there's a lot to learn from the generation of experienced engineers who form our advisory committee. A lot of our presenters are key engineers in the industry who have been working in turbomachinery for over 20 years.”

Dr. Eric Petersen from Texas A&M shares what's hot at this year's show. 

What's Hot at TPS 2024 

Dr. Eric Petersen of Texas A&M shares what the hot sessions and topics are at TPS 2024. 

What's Hot at TPS 2024

Turbomachinery International interviewed Tim Allison, Ph.D., the Director of the Machinery Department at Southwest Research Institute (SWRI), at Turbomachinery & Pump Symposia (TPS) 2024 Houston. The director shared what new research projects SWRI is working on and what turbomachinery advancements the institute is most excited about regarding decarbonization.

TURBO: What new research projects is SWRI working on?

 “We have several pretty exciting research projects,” Allison said. “Standing next to this turbine highlights one of our projects in supercritical CO

 turbine that was developed with GE Vernova. We are running the Gen. 2 turbine at the STEP sCO

 Demo Pilot Plant. We've run it this year a couple of times with the completion scheduled for this fall.”

TURBO: In terms of decarbonization, what turbomachinery advancements is SWRI excited about?

 “I’m excited about a couple of other projects that we have. One is using turbomachinery to decarbonize ethylene cracking—we have a project for the DOE with Siemens Energy to prove out a rotating olefin cracker, or a turbo cracker, product they're commercializing. We’ll do a full-scale test of that product. We also have some projects on thermal energy storage for long-duration energy storage for the grid. But I am really excited about the trends that couple thermal storage to turbomachinery systems—think a gas turbine that's fed with thermal storage or integrates the thermal storage for another process.”

At TPS 2024, Tim Allison, Ph. D. from the Southwest Research Institute (SWRI), shares what’s happening at SWRI. 

SWRI Shares Research Projects, Turbo Trends

At TPS 2024, Tim Allison, Ph.D., from the Southwest Research Institute (SWRI) shares what’s happening at SWRI. 

SWRI Shares Research Projects, Gas Turbine Decarbonization Advancements 

Tuesday morning at Turbomachinery & Pump Symposia 2024, speakers from Compressor Controls Corp. (CCC) and Petrobras, including Fabio Zanetti de Souza, Brownfield Account Manager at CCC by Honeywell, presented: 

Optimizing Compressor Anti-Surge Control to Reduce Power Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Oil Production Units

Decarbonization initiatives are often associated with low-carbon fuel combustion, but a compressor’s anti-surge control system impacts energy efficiency and carbon performance and emissions. According to Zanetti de Souza, an anti-surge control system coupled with performance management helps decarbonize offshore operations by minimizing energy consumption and emissions through precise control and monitoring.

Zanetti de Souza provides details on the panel’s anti-surge control system paper, including key takeaways, the control system’s primary and secondary functionalities, its ability to decarbonize offshore operations, specifically in the Brazilian pre-salt fields, and more.

TURBO: What are you hoping to take away from Tuesday’s paper presentation?

We aim to demonstrate how fine-tuning control parameters and enabling advanced control strategies, such as derivative response, tight shutoff, etc., can optimize compressor anti-surge control to reduce power consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in offshore oil production units. Our goal is to highlight the control theory behind one practical application in a real-case operation with CCC’s control system. We believe that sharing these results can help drive worldwide focus on how relevant the compressor is and its control system as a central contributor to increasing energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions.

TURBO: What is the primary function of a compressor anti-surge control system, and what are its major components?

The primary function of the anti-surge control system is to prevent the centrifugal compressor from operating under surge conditions, which is a potentially damaging phenomenon for the compressor. However, the secondary functions of an anti-surge control system are often overlooked or unaddressed by many providers. It can help maintain specific suction pressure in centrifugal compressors through a Ps limit loop or prevent reaching a high discharge pressure through a Pd limit loop. The system also avoids high discharge temperature that could lead to a trip due to high Td or manipulate the anti-surge valve for periodic stroke tests and send operators an alarm if the valve demonstrates some level of stickiness. The anti-surge control can also be used to avoid critical speeds during startup of an expander-recompressor arrangement in natural gas liquids plants or even prevent overspeed.

The major components of an anti-surge control system are:

 Allows for flow recirculation to occur from the discharge side to suction side of the compressor through a recirculation line when opened. This reduces the energy required to compress a certain amount of gas since the discharge pressure is reduced. It is the anti-surge control system vendor’s responsibility to validate anti-surge valve layout and sizing and perform flow measurement device calculation to predict differential pressure readings referencing specific compressor operating points, as well as propose recommended process variable transmitter calibration spans and performance characteristics.

These devices allow the measurement of process variables such as pressure, flow, and temperature in the inlet and outlet of the compressor to be transmitted to the controller.

 The controller receives the measured process variables from different points in the piping (as mentioned above) and processes them in an anti-surge control loop. The signals’ processing shall be performed in such a way that the anti-surge control loop defines the operating point position in an invariant way when related to suction conditions (invariant to suction flow, pressure, temperature, and Mol weight). This allows the logic solver to plot the operating point position in the compressor map and decide, based on previous programming, which actions should be taken: if the recycle valve should open to prevent the machine from entering surge conditions, if the recycle valve should open to maintain a minimum suction pressure limit condition, etc.)

 While the core components of an anti-surge control system—such as the surge control valve, measurement devices, and anti-surge controller—are critical, the expertise of experienced field engineers is equally essential. Their understanding of customer needs, process conditions, and fine-tuning of control logic ensures the system's optimal performance, making them an indispensable component of any effective anti-surge control solution.

TURBO: How does it impact energy and carbon performance?

A good anti-surge control system can respond quickly to process changes in a way that allows the compressor’s operating envelope to be as big as possible without risking the machine entering excessive surging. If the system is not tuned with the correct control parameters, the operational envelope can be limited, which can result in the unnecessary opening of the surge control valve and waste of energy used to compress the flow passing through the compressor—this increase in energy consumption leads to more emissions. Therefore, a good anti-surge system allows for a safe operation even close to the surge-control line, reducing process upsets and the demand for recycling, therefore cutting unnecessary flaring/emissions and reducing energy consumption.

TURBO: How does combining optimized turbomachinery controls with the appropriate energy and carbon-performance management system help decarbonize offshore operations?

It helps decarbonize offshore operations by ensuring that energy consumption and emissions are minimized through precise control and monitoring. Optimized controls enhance the efficiency of turbomachinery, reducing the power required for operation, while the performance management system tracks energy use and carbon emissions in real time. This integrated approach allows for continuous adjustments and improvements, ensuring that operations remain as efficient and low-emission as possible, ultimately leading to significant reductions in the carbon footprint of offshore oil production units.

Fabio Zanetti de Souza of Compressor Controls Corp. shares how a compressor’s control system is a central contributor to increasing energy efficiency and reducing emissions.

Q&A: Compressor Anti-Surge Control with Compressor Controls Corp. at TPS 2024

At Turbomachinery & Pump Symposia (TPS) 2024, Tim Allison, Ph.D., the Director of the Machinery Department at Southwest Research Institute (SWRI), shares what he's most excited about at this year's show and provides insights into the turbomachinery trends is seeing.

Allison said: “We see a lot of trends focusing on the decarbonization of turbomachinery that includes gas turbine—actually gas turbines are growing in the power-generation mix. They are a very good bridge technology, but with the growth of gas turbines, there's a lot of talk about how to decarbonize them through hydrogen or carbon capture, and that includes discussions of retrofit or load-following behaviors. We see a lot on the compressor side about the transport of hydrogen or CO

Tim Allison, Ph.D., Director of the Machinery Department at Southwest Research Institute, shares what he's most excited about at TPS 2024 and provides insights into turbomachinery trends.

SWRI at TPS 2024

Tim Allison, Ph.D., Director of the Machinery Department at Southwest Research Institute, shares what he's most excited about at TPS 2024 and provides insights into turbomachinery trends. 

SWRI Talks Turbo Trends, TPS 2024

The 2024 Turbomachinery & Pump Symposia (TPS) kicked off today in Houston, held August 20-22 at the George R. Brown Convention Center. This year’s welcome address was kicked off by Dr. Eric Petersen , the Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Turbomachinery Laboratory Director at Texas A&M. He gave attendees a rundown of the show’s agenda and other housekeeping items and said the call for papers for TPS 2025 is open through Oct. 23, 2024. TPS 2025 will be held Sept. 16 – 18, 2025 in Houston, with short courses starting on Sept. 15.

Dr. Douglas Allaire, Associate Professor at Texas A&M, then took the stage. He spoke about the value of AI and its challenges and risks as the new technology is embraced.

“The impact of AI on our industry and all industries, not just those represented here, is a business discontinuity,” Dr. Allaire said. “Think of streaming services and how they impacted the video rental industry; think about the Internet and touch screens and how they impacted the mobile phone industry; think about the companies that come to mind when I talk about these industries; think about digital photography how it impacted the film industry: for all of these discontinuities, there were companies that failed to embrace new technology and failed to innovate when they had the opportunity. They were outcompeted. So, my main message today as this AI discontinuity comes about is that you must engage, or you will be left behind.”

So, what is the value of engaging? Dr. Allaire argued that if you engage in AI and machine learning now, you can perform predictive analytics, which uses current and historical data from machine modeling and machine learning to predict maintenance needs. It enables the user to plan for asset downtime in advance.

Several years ago, the Petronas team deployed predictive analytics methods. In their first year, they identified 51 issues and with that information, they were able to save their company an estimated $17.4 M.

So, the value is already there, but the next question is what’s the value of AI tomorrow? Prescriptive analytics. 

Prescriptive analytics goes beyond predictive analytics and uses data, ML-based models and now physics-based models. It not only tells when your asset is going to fail but also recommends specific actions.

Dr. Douglas Allaire, Associate Professor at Texas A&M, presents the welcome address at TPS 2024. 

Digital Twins + Threads = Digital Tapestries

The key ingredient to prescriptive analytics is a digital twin. It enables root-cause analysis and quickly identifies the problem to offer tremendous value to operators. The other aspect of prescriptive analytics is a digital thread: a digital representation of a product or asset’s entire lifecycle—it’s all the information we can collect from conception to design to operation and maintenance. It can be incredibly valuable for identifying what pain points you encountered throughout the asset’s life cycle. Both digital twins and threads offer actionable insights, proactive interventions, traceability, and efficient workflows.

“These two together are called a digital tapestry, which holistically connects all the aspects of our operation, all our assets, all our business decisions to make more efficient, more optimal decision-making,” he said.

Digital tapestry is an interconnected framework of digital threads achieving prognostic analytics, which predicts the future condition of equipment and systems.

The industry is moving from predictive to prescriptive to prognostic analytics.

Dr. Allaire laid out several challenges and risks with AI and ML. The two biggest challenges for digital transformation are data and people.

In terms of data acquisition, the challenges include:

errors, incomplete or hacked data, outdated data

lack of historical data, biased models, and inaccurate physics-based models

long-term maintenance of ML models and digital twins

data integration for multiple sources and platforms

huge volumes of data may impact data centers and processing latency

data security: who owns it and who has access?

One challenge with the current workforce is their current skill sets are inadequate. They must be more interdisciplinary—domain + AI/ML. Dr. Allaire said there is an overreliance on automated processes and a loss of institutional knowledge. There is also resistance to change. Business models reward near-term success and the ROI for AI/ML is still being debated.

“It’s time to get started using AI/MI in turbomachinery,” he said.

Dr. Doug Allaire.heic

The theme of this year’s welcome address is you must engage with AI or you will be left behind. 