WTUI 2025 Spotlights Uptick in Gas Turbine Orders

Monday morning at the annual Western Turbine Users Inc. (WTUI), attendees including aeroderivative gas turbines users tuned into Mark Axford, President of Axford Consulting, and Tony Brough, President of Dora Partners & Co., for the 19^th annual State of the Gas Turbine World.

“Reported gas turbine orders were up 32% in 2024, with GE Vernova as the market share leader,” Axford said. 2024 marked the highest unit number and MWs (near 500 units and almost 60 MW) reported since 2002. In addition, Axford estimated an additional 30,000 MW of unreported orders, known as reservation agreements, bringing the total order book for 2024 to a level exceeding 80,000 MW.

President Donald Trump’s election has ushered in profound changes to the U.S. energy policy. Axford said the President’s goal is “energy dominance” with less government intervention—“Drill baby Drill” is the new Administration’s anthem driving energy forward. The United States exited the Paris Agreement, and it’s uncertain whether EPA regulations on CO₂ will be altered. Green subsidies and EV mandates are out the door. Instead, the new U.S. Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, showed strong support at CERAWeek 2025 for pipelines, drilling, fracking, LNG, and gas turbines.

Power-Hungry Data Centers

Artificial intelligence (AI) and data center acceleration are leading the power charge. To put it in terms of watt-hours, a Google search requires 0.3 watt-hours, whereas an AI search requires 2.9 watt-hours. Virginia, Texas, and Georgia have the highest potential for data center buildouts.

These power-hungry data centers are surging gas turbine orders, which is shifting the energy transition into the energy addition, Axford said. It’s out with the old energy trilemma—reliable, affordable, sustainable—in which each side of the triangle was equal, and in with the new, in which affordable holds the lion’s share, reliability is second runner-up, and there is a small focus on sustainability.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Georgia Power, AI-capable PC shipments were 18% in 2024 and are forecasted to reach 40% in 2025.

AI data centers boosting demand; credit: Axford Turbine Consulting

During CERAWeek by S&P Global 2025, Axford reported there is no path to net zero by 2050. “It would cost 5% of the world’s GDP for the next 25 years, and we are further away now than we were in 2022,” said Daniel Yergin, Vice Charman of S&P Global. The practical approach is affordable LNG for heating and cooking.

Gas Turbines Gone Wild

As Axford put it: “Gas turbines gone wild.” It’s “Turbotopia” … again but OEMs are cautiously adding capacity, remembering the 2000 bubble. New orders will now ship in 2027, 2028, and 2029, with gas turbine and engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) prices up sharply.

“We completed a modern combined cycle in 2022 for $785 per KW,” said John W. Ketchum, CEO of NextEra. “A new build for 2030 commercial operation will cost $2,400 per KW.”

According to Dora Partners & Co., global gas turbine MW orders were upwards of 40,000 in 2023 and around 60,000 MW in 2024 with reservations for more than 80,000 MW (FIGURE 1).

MW gas turbine worldwide orders; credit: Axford Turbine Consulting

GE Vernova saw solid order numbers in 2024. It regained the no. 1 market share spot for advanced-frame gas turbines—Mitsubishi was no. 1 in 2022 – 2023—and has approximately 85% of the market share for aeroderivative gas turbines. The company booked 22 GW of gas turbine “orders” in 2024. It is expanding its Greenville, South Carolina, gas turbine factory capacity from 55 heavy-frame gas turbines per year (now) to 70 – 80 per year in 2026.

Overall, advanced-frame (> 225 MW) gas turbine orders were approximately 80% of all gas turbine orders (MWe). The top OEMs and gas turbine models include:

• GE Vernova: 7F.05, 7H, 9F, and 9H
• Mitsubishi: F, G, and J series
• Siemens Energy: F and H series
• Ansaldo Energia: 94.3A
• Doosan: DJT 6 (~ 2.5%)