Gas Turbine Sales Report: 2023 Holds Its Own

After a rebound year in 2022, overall gas turbine MW capacity orders were down 12.6% in 2023. This slight downturn was anticipated due to the cyclic nature of the market for large turbines. OEMs spend years taking major orders from start to commissioning; hence, it is rarely the case that a good year for sales of large machines is followed by an even stronger year. Yet two consecutive years with capacity orders above 30 GW hasn’t happened in a long time. This indicates that the downward trajectory of gas turbine sales during 2010-2019 has been arrested, if not reverted.

Meanwhile, total units sold rose by 3%, according to Tony Brough, President of Dora Partners and Company. Unit orders have been slowly rising since 2019.

One of the reasons for this uptick is innovation from Solar Turbines. The Solar Titan 250 sold 32 units to the oil and gas sector over the last few years—a 48% share of oil and gas sales in the 20 - 30 MW range in the past six years. The relatively new Solar Titan 350 has also started well since its release less than two years ago. It is likely to compete well against GE Vernova’s LM2500+, which is the best-selling aeroderivative model.

With so much attention on renewables, emissions reduction, hydrogen, and net zero, some wonder what the future holds for gas turbines. Brough strongly believes the market will remain healthy for many years to come.

“Gas turbines are not going away; the renewable offset/peaking market continues to have long-term potential,” he said. “Ten years from now, the gas turbine market will still be going strong.”

He backed this up with numbers. He expects $137 billion to be spent on new turbines and turbine packages—not including auxiliary systems, heat recovery steam generators, and other related equipment—over the next 10 years. In addition, aftermarket spending on gas turbines will amount to $261 billion over the next decade.

AERODERIVATIVE ORDERS

In the aeroderivative space, GE/Baker Hughes continues to dominate market share with the LM2500+ being the star performer. A total of 83 units were ordered in 2023 compared to 81 in 2022 with a total of 230 over the past six years.

“The LM2500+ has been one of the most popular models in the world for the last 25 years,” said Brough. “Almost 50% of all aeroderivative sales over the past six years have been LM2500+s, and 74% of sales in the 30 - 40 MW segment.”

Other GE aeroderivatives fared less. The LM6000 managed about five orders in 2023, though Brough noted that 2024 looks like a better year for that machine. The LM9000 holds good potential in oil and gas and electric power but is still in the early stages of market acceptance. Overall, aeroderivative unit orders were down 5% in 2023 and MW orders were down 16%, following a huge year for LM6000 sales in 2022.

Looking ahead, Brough predicts that $22.3 billion will be spent on aeroderivatives between now and 2033. GE/Baker Hughes will gain almost $20 billion of that share. The aeroderivative aftermarket will generate $31.5 billion over the next decade; $23 billion of that will be spent on GE/Baker Hughes machines.

MORE COMPETITION

The strength of the LM2500+ is attracting competition from small industrial gas turbines like Solar Titan machines and the Siemens Energy SGT-800 as well as reciprocating engines from Wartsila and others. The SGT-800 is performing especially well in the 40 - 60 MW power generation segment with 178 units sold in the last six years—54% of all sales in that segment. In oil and gas, it accounted for 13% of sales in that period (21 units).

While posing a strong technical challenge, Siemens Energy aeroderivatives have suffered competitively due to the company moving the packaging of these units to Sweden.

“Frame 5 heavy-duty gas turbines are also putting pressure on the LM2500+ space,” said Brough.

He compared the LM2500 with the Solar Titan 350. The Titan 350’s power output is 34 - 38 MW, and its efficiency ranges from 39.4% to 40.1%. The output of the LM2500+ is 34 - 37 MW with its efficiency ranging between 38.9% and 39.1%. The Titan 350 wins out when it comes to dry-low NOx by offering 9, 15, and 25 ppm options. The LM2500+ offers 15 and 25 ppm options. However, the footprint and weight of the Solar Titan 350 are much higher: 936 square feet and 406,000 lbs. compared to 585 square feet and 297,624 lbs. for the LM2500+. Further, the GE Vernova model provides far more repair options courtesy of GE Vernova, Baker Hughes, and its three authorized service providers.

PREPARE FOR MARKET DISRUPTION

Mark Axford, President of Axford Turbine Consultants, expects the gas turbine market to improve in 2024. He predicts a 7 - 10% uptick in orders this year. That said, he warned of the many disruptive factors that can quickly change things. He listed the Israel-Hamas war, the Russia-Ukraine war, and severe shipping constraints in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal that add two weeks and 40% to the price, as goods now have to go around the Cape of Good Hope in Southern Africa.

He gave the example of an earlier market disruption that completely changed the worldwide energy picture.

“The Nord Stream pipeline blowing up in 2022 was the single-most important occurrence in energy markets in decades,” said Axford. “Since then, the United States has gone from third in LNG production to no. 1, with 24% share.”

DATA CENTERS CREATE NEED FOR GAS-POWERED PLANTS

Despite the steady rise in restrictions and anti-fossil-fuel policies—such as the recent pause on new LNG permits in the United States—there is another factor acting as a catalyst for new natural gas facilities development: AI-based data centers. Loudon County, VA near Washington DC, for example, has the highest concentration of data centers in North America. Gas turbines will likely meet the need for far more power in places like this, as there is either no room for large wind and solar farms or their output would be insufficient.

“It is very likely that there will be a lot more for gas turbines due to AI,” said Axford.

Another knock-on effect of rising power demands is delays placed on planned coal plant closures. States such as Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma have all postponed coal closures recently.

SUPPLY CHAIN ALTERNATIVES

Axford noted that Mitsubishi Power and Siemens Energy seem so focused on the sales of industrial gas turbines that they are paying little attention to their own aeroderivative machines. Hence, the dominance of GE in the aeroderivative market. But GE doesn’t win all awards for genset packages. Competition has arisen from companies like ProEnergy and its WattBridge affiliate, Relevant Power Solutions, and Dynamis.

ProEnergy, for example, has built and installed 41 LM6000 genset packages since 2009. WattBridge owns and operates 50 LM6000 peakers in Texas.

“ProEnergy offers a low-cost turnkey alternative 48 MW genset to the OEM and traditional engineering, procurement, and construction firms,” said Axford. “The company also provides Level IV-like shop overhaul services, completing 13 of them on LM2500s and LM6000s in 2023.”

Dynamis, too, has found some success in doing the same thing over and over and doing it well. It has developed a trailer-mounted LM2500+ that can be bought or leased. Oil and gas companies like these units because they can move them from one month to the next to the latest well site. Axford said Dynamis will have 28 of these units running by the end of 2024.

In addition, Relevant Power has developed a trailer-mounted LM2500+. Five have been sold to date and one is in production. The company does full-load string testing and offers an economical installation.

THE ALL-OF-THE-ABOVE GRID

Despite the obvious problems facing the natural gas industry, Axford believes it is holding its own. It remains the leading source of U.S. electricity production, scoring 37 - 39% for six years straight. At the same time, more wind and solar resources are coming onto the grid. Combined with hydroelectric generation, renewables now account for 26% of U.S. electricity generation.

“The optimum amount of renewables for a large grid is probably 30% and perhaps might be stretched closer to 40%,” said Axford. “But gas turbines are an essential part of creating a reliable, affordable, and sustainable grid.”

Drew Robb is a freelance writer specializing in engineering and technology. Email Drew at drew@robbeditorial.com.